Enter your spending, current portfolio, savings, return, inflation, withdrawal rate, and current age. SmartFin shows the modeled point at which the selected target is reached.
Under these assumptions, the model reaches the selected financial-independence target at approximately age 62, in 32 years, with a modeled portfolio of $2,640,127. The target then is $2,575,083: $40,000 of today’s expenses grown to $103,003 a year by inflation, divided by the 4% withdrawal-rate assumption.
Inputs: age 30, $40,000 annual expenses, $50,000 saved, $20,000 saved a year, 7% assumed return, 4% withdrawal-rate assumption, 3% assumed inflation.
Inputs changed: press Calculate to see the result.
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This is a scenario built from the inputs you selected. It is not a promise that the same portfolio value or retirement date will occur.
The target today is $1,000,000: annual expenses divided by the withdrawal-rate assumption. Each modeled year, savings grow at 7%, the $20,000 of annual savings is added, and the target rises with 3% inflation; the model stops at the first year savings reach that year’s target.
Savings, spending, starting assets, assumed growth, inflation and the withdrawal rate all affect the calculation. Two of them, on your other inputs:
| Withdrawal-rate assumption | Target today | Target reached |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | $1,333,333 | age 68 (38 years) |
| 4% (your inputs) | $1,000,000 | age 62 (32 years) |
| 5% | $800,000 | age 57 (27 years) |
| Assumed annual return | Target reached |
|---|---|
| 5% | age 77 (47 years) |
| 7% (your inputs) | age 62 (32 years) |
| 10% | age 53 (23 years) |
The withdrawal rate is an assumption or rule of thumb, not a guarantee. Taxes, fees, healthcare costs, how long the money needs to last, and sequence-of-returns risk (the order in which good and bad years arrive) are outside the model: every year grows at the same assumed rate.
With $40,000 of annual expenses, $50,000 saved and $20,000 saved a year at an assumed 7% return, 3% inflation and a 4% withdrawal-rate assumption, the model reaches the target at approximately age 62. It is a scenario under these assumptions, not a retirement plan, and it excludes taxes, fees, healthcare and sequence-of-returns risk. Reproduce the calculation here: https://smartfin.fyi/fire-calculator.html?currentAge=30¤tExpenses=40000¤tSavings=50000&annualSavings=20000&returnRateSegment=7&swrSegment=4&inflationRate=3&coastToggle=0.
It can show when the model reaches a target under your assumptions. It does not decide when someone should retire.
No. The calculator uses the rate selected, 4% here, and treats it as an assumption. 4% is a commonly discussed rule of thumb, not a guarantee; the table above shows the target at 3%, 4% and 5%.
Annual expenses divided by the withdrawal-rate assumption: $40,000 ÷ 4% = $1,000,000 today. In the model the expenses, and so the target, grow with inflation every year.